FigureRX Feature: The Selection Process for IFBB Arnold Figure International
Editor's Note: Check here or go to http://www.ArnoldSelections.com to see the invitation list as soon as it has been released.
Our computer analyis is completed, but to see real life updates on our predictions up until the final list is released, including a list of athletes who did not apply before the deadline on the 14th ("Not Competing") please see http://www.ArnoldSelections.com. At FigureRX one of our mission statements is to get the names of highly qualified athletes out there who typically do not receive as much coverage both inside or outside the sport, so you will generally see us focus more than others on newer or rising stars, or comeback athletes, since that's a big part of what we are about as an organization. That's not meant to be a slight at all to any of the big mega-stars, of course -- they get plenty of coverage out there already!!
Selections to the Arnold Classic are a lot like the admission process at an Ivy League University. If universities just decided to select the students with the top grade point averages and SAT scores the campus would be pretty boring (but the process would be easy to explain). But they don't, they seek to put together a diverse class of interesting people with a variety of attributes, backgrounds and accomplishments.
So who do they select for the Arnold and how do you become one of them? Here's everything you need or want to know about the selection process for the Arnold Fitness International and the Arnold Figure International, just in time for the 2008 invitations in mid-December!
The Official IFBB Process
If you are a registered IFBB professional athlete, you will have already received notification regarding professional contests in 2008. When you receive the packet, it is important that you return it as soon as possible with an indication of whether or not you are interested in competing at International events, including the Arnold. Indicating interest is normally enough to get your name handed over to Jim Lorimer's office. Some athletes choose to send a letter or a brief portfolio that reflects her image and competitive records. This is not necessary but it certainly can't hurt one's chances.
Once Jim Lorimer has compiled a list of athletes who have expressed an interest in being invited, he sends the list to six secret individuals who are "well known" in the womens' competitive field and who attend most major NPC and IFBB women's competitions. These advisors rate the applicants in one of four categories:
1. Must Invite
2. Should Invite
3. Probably not quite ready for this level
4. Do not know this athlete
After all the replies are received a detailed ratings chart is then compiled, reflecting all of the recommendations. Obviously any competitor with all (1)'s is a no brainer, while further rankings are based on total scores. When the numbers are close, the committee looks very closely at any up-and-coming athletes who might benefit from the encouraging opportunity to compete at the highest levels of the sport. At FigureRX we applaud this system and view it to be as impartial and fair as it can be.
------------------------Jane Awad, Figure International Competitor 2005-2007
Now of course the major X-factor in all of this is the human element. All we can be sure of is that the selection process is fair, but we do not know what goes on in the hearts and minds of each individual member of the selection committee. In an ideal world, everything would be completely free of conflict of interest – so, for example, if a member of the committee had an affiliation with a supplement company, and that supplement company sponsored one of the athletes, then that committee member would recuse him or herself from rating or discussing that particular athlete. It's similar to what we have on Wall Street, called arms length transactions, or when a judge in a case removes him or herself because (s)he knows one of the parties. The fitness industry is way too small and insular to abide by such rules, so we have that X-factor, and that's part of what makes the entire selection process so much fun.
Analyzing the Results to Predict the Future
So, we get to look at what has happened in previous years to determine who might be selected for the 2008 show and beyond. We'll begin with looking at the 2007 Figure International. Last year the field of invited competitors was announced by the IFBB around December 16th and we can probably expect an announcement in a similar time frame this year. There were 17 athletes invited and 15 who ultimately stepped onto stage to compete. Zhanna Rotar and Gina Camacho (both from the USA and both 2006 participants) were invited but did not compete. In addition, three major competitors who probably would have received invitations had previously indicated that they would not compete if invited (Jenny Lynn, Monica Brant-Peckham, and Christine Pomponio-Pate), which skews the results slightly. Our analysis will include athletes who would be invited if they apply (based on the computer model) and if they do not put in for an invitation we consider them to have "withdrawn" from consideration. The entry deadline is on December 14th and after that point we will know more about who has decided to put their hat into the ring. Now that we know that the selection committee seeks to put together a well rounded field that represents numerous categories, we can analyze the competitor list and recognize where everyone “fits†in the spectrum.
------------The Top Three in 2007: Amanda Savell, Sonia Adcock and Mary Lado
We started with figure because it has a much shorter history, beginning with the first Figure International in 2003. Last year's selection process was pretty close to historical standards, although the absolute number of competitors dropped from 2006. Let's start by looking at the figure show charts to see what percentage of figure competitors are appearing at the Arnold for the first time. The red represents athletes who competed the previous year and were invited again, while the blue would be competitors who competed at the Arnold in the past but not the previous year (the "comebackers"). Figure athletes with pro experience but appearing at the Arnold for the first time are in yellow while overall pro debuts are in black (not counting the World Championships).
In 2006 the stage was expanded considerably and we were very happy to see a larger group because it allowed room for some athletes outside of the typical contingent. The numbers went down in 2007 partly because some major stars withdrew and two invitees did not compete, and we are hoping that was a fluke. As you can see, the number of pro debuts each year has averaged two while it has, on average, become a little bit harder each year to be invited for the first time as the show has matured.
The chart below shows the international make-up of the last four Ms. Figure Internationals. This is influenced slightly by changing affiliations, for example superstar Jane Awad was listed as Canadian in 2005 but was switched to USA in 2006 and 2007. We think there ought to be some recognition that her roots were in Canada when crediting the selection committee (the same applies to Elaine Goodlad). In 2008, if Jelena Abbou is selected she would be listed as being from the USA even though her origins are in Serbia. Since there has been a lot of criticism concerning the lack of European athletes in the past, there ought to be some credit given for the selection of athletes who live in the USA but are from other places.
We're familiar now with the process, and that's what the figure group has looked like over the past few years. So what should be the goals going forward and who should be included in the group? And what improves (or hurts) an athlete's chances? To answer the last question, we did statistical analysis to see how certain things improve your chances. Most of them are too controversial to print, we're not looking to create waves unless we must because we're a figure and fitness team first and foremost and our primary obligation is to our sponsored athletes. For example, what we would never say is that if you are sponsored by company XX or you have a certain trainer your chances go up by XX%. But just to put some interesting tidbits out there, if you ever won the overall title at the North Americans you have a 24% better chance of making the Arnold, which makes sense because North Americans are also an international IFBB show. If you won the overall at the USA's in any year you have a 22% better chance, after removing any company, management, or trainer affiliations completely from the mix. If you live in South America you have a 15% lower chance and if you live in Australia your chances go down 29%, statistically speaking, even after all your pro placings over the past year are discounted. Being from Canada actually helps, but only slightly. All of this is after the database takes into account all of your contest results and personal characteristics including age, years competing, etc. If you have any questions about our statistical results you can e-mail us and we will discuss them with any IFBB professional privately.
------------------------Briana Tindall making her pro debut at the 2007 Arnold
There's one more subjective item that needs to be discussed before we get down to the fun part! Both the Arnold and Olympia stage are important enough that everyone on it should be great representatives of the sport. We aren't talking about being a role model in a traditional sense like “everyone's watching so I need to set a good example.†We're thinking more in terms of how performance and image adds to the expansion of the sports of figure and fitness. As a company that operates across the spectrum of professional and amateur sports, the parent of FigureRX sees a lot of situations where the outstanding careers of female athletes end in college or even in high school. Very few find an outlet for their competitive pursuits after college, and even fewer get an opportunity to move on to the professional level. Thanks to federal laws and a more equitable division of resources between men's and women's sports in society as a whole, however, we have an enviable groundswell of healthy, confident female athletes in grade school up to the college level and beyond.
Many of these athletes will find their outlets in fitness and figure, but some of them do not even know that the sports exist. When they do discover the sport, will they have a good impression? Think of it this way. Imagine that the winner of the Arnold will appear on the front of the USA Today sports page in full color. Imagine as well that we have an opportunity to create mainstream opinion, rather than just react to it. When people see the winner, what will be the reaction to the photo and the attached article? Will it be "oh look, it's another beauty contest" or will it be "Wow. That redefines my image of what it means to be a woman in modern society - she's beautiful, muscular, athletic, successful, and she's balancing multiple facets of her life to perfection." Those of us in the industry know that figure and fitness competitors are some of the best athletes around and they train as hard as anyone, and we know that it's just a matter of time before that's recognized even more widely throughout the United States and the world to the benefit of the entire sport.
So based on everything we have discussed above, FigureRX has put together a group of athletes who we think should be and are being considered for the second biggest stage, if they ultimately choose to indicate their interest by December 14th. So what do we usually see at the Figure International? (we are not doing a preview or commenting on placings, we will wait for the list to do that)
The Must Haves: Muscular and Symmetrical Perfection ....
There are a few top notch athletes who have already been to the Arnold and who are such perfect combinations of muscle, beauty, symmetry and conditioning that we consider them to be locks. It starts with the second place finisher at the 2007 Arnold, Amanda Savell, who has one of the best combinations of all of the above that we have ever seen on stage. Amanda has had a difficult few months, but champions always find a way to rise to the top and she is definitely a champion.
--------------------------------------Amanda Savell at the 2007 Arnold
Also falling in this category would be Gina Aliotti, who has made tremendous strides with her physique since placing 6th at last year's Arnold and now at age 23 brings one of the top up and coming physiques that this young sport has ever seen. Valerie Waugaman is one of the most respected competitors both inside and outside of the sport, and the package that she presented at the 2007 Arnold is one of the best we have seen on that stage - hard and dry with enviable quad separation that would wow even the most casual fan. We don't expect Valerie's taping schedule for NBC to interfere with her Arnold prep, and this could be a tremendous opportunity as well for the IFBB to do some beneficial cross promotion. Valerie is a strong and independent career woman and that's been one of the keys to her tremendous success both inside and outside of figure. Gina and Valerie are both "locks."
-----------------------Gina Aliotti-----------------------------------------Valerie Waugaman
We're going to put Sonia Adcock in this section as well simply because we know she will be invited and we don't know where else to place her. Sonia's placing at the Olympia was highly controversial in many segments of the sport, but we are some of her biggest supporters .... her physique is different, but because she has muscle combined with symmetry, beauty and some killer vascularity we really like the package she presents even if she does appear to be smaller than some of the other athletes.
The Changeover: Skyrocketing Breakthrough Stars ....
Some of the most important decisions made by the committee revolve around the new invitees, and as we see from the charts above there are anywhere from 6-12 new Arnold debuts each year. This year's group under consideration is so good that they have a chance to be at the Arnold and at the Olympia for multiple years, and collectively their talent is so incredible they can transform the entire stage. So who do we think is under consideration? These are athletes who have competed at the pro level but have never been to the Figure International. Here are the best of the best.
Paola Almerico is one of the major breakthrough competitors of 2007, and she has already qualified for the 2008 Olympia. She exudes grace and beauty combined with muscular symmetry and excellent presentation and skin tone. Heather Green competed at the Olympia this past year and brings an almost perfect level of muscularity in combination with her stunningly gorgeous look. Both would be spectacular additions to the Arnold.
---------------------Paola Almerico----------------------------------------Heather Green
Two additional competitors with stunning looks that can transform the entire event are Krissy Chin and Amy Fry. Krissy exudes star quality and is a marketer's dream, with ideal symmetry and a beautiful presentation. Amy turned heads at the Olympia, placing 8th even though many did not know her name, and she has one of the best muscular, tall physiques combined with stunning beauty that we have seen grace the stage in a while.
----------------------Krissy Chin-------------------------------------------------Amy Fry
We would put Jelena Abbou on this list as well and we'd love to see her front and center in Columbus. An invite would go a long way toward rectifying some of Jelena's controversial placings over the past year. Finally, when we ran all the numbers through the computer it suggested that both Natalie Benson and Felicia Romero have better than average chances to make the show based on their 2007 placings, if they apply. We love them both but would give the edge to Natalie based on her level of muscle and her otherworldly delts and symmetry. Felicia is very young and will find her way to the Arnold at some point, if she chooses to do so.
---------------------Jelena Abbou----------------------------------------Natalie Benson
At this point you're probably wondering about the two obvious pending Arnold debuts. Well we like to tackle the tough stuff first! MaryJo Cooke and Jennifer Gates have had such tremendous competition years that we would be shocked if both did not get invitations. MaryJo continues to get better and we are as excited about seeing her at the 2009 Arnold as we are at the 2008 - her trajectory is that impressive. Jennifer, well, we still like 2005 and 2006 amateur Jennifer so much that we're sad to see how much muscle she had to strip in order to go pro. But she will be at the Arnold and she will probably place in the top six as well.
---------------------MaryJo Cooke----------------------------------------Jennifer Gates
We would also highly recommend Nancy Georges in this category but do not believe that she has expressed an interest. If the goal is mainstream exposure, we would also have personally given a nod to Texan Jen Cook - if the IFBB mounts a national ad campaign then Jen should be heavily involved. But she only competed once in 2007 after a long layoff. Jessica Paxson is taking time off for other pursuits (like photo shoots) but we can't wait to see her on this stage someday as well. Finally, Heather Mae French is redefining "figure short" at the professional level and ultimately deserves an opportunity at the Arnold, as does Meriza DeGuzman. It probably won't be 2008, however.
The Perennial Locals: Ohio-Based Performers ....
FigureRX discovered a little bit of a home field advantage in the Arnold selection (living in Ohio is a plus, according to the computer model) but neither of these champions needs it. Both Latisha Wilder and Chastity Slone have competed in the Figure International for the past two years, and have finished no worse than 7th place. That is very difficult to do, and we think both of these great athletes and competitors deserve to be back on stage in 2008.
---------------------Latisha Wilder----------------------------------------Chastity Slone
The Newcomers: IFBB Professional Debuts ....
Every year there are anywhere from 2-4 professional figure debuts that happen right on the Arnold stage. These tend to be highly unpredictable and sometimes controversial, like Corry Matthews in 2007 and Jen Hartley in 2005. They can also be spectacular choices like Jane Awad in 2005, Danielle Hollenshade and Ali Metkovich in 2006 and the gorgeous Briana Tindall in 2007. We wouldn't put our money on anything but here are some athletes who we have recommended ....
Catherine Andersen won the overall title at the 2007 USA's and Amy Thompson won the overall at the North Americans, and those two things have been the best predictors of an Arnold selection, outside of management affiliations. We think both Catherine and Amy have excellent physiques and would add a lot to the competition.
-------------------Catherine Andersen------------------------------------Amy Thompson
Because we don't count World's as a pro debut, Nicole Wilkins falls in this category and she will likely get an invitation (if she wants it) based on the rarity of her accomplishment - winning the overall in both figure and fitness at Nationals/Team U. We simply can't say, however, if her invitation would be for figure or fitness.
An additional competitor who we think might get strong consideration if she is interested is Floridian Desha Rodriguez. Teresa Anthony would be amazing and turn heads at the Arnold but she is preparing for a later debut.
Stage Diversity: A Small International Contingent ....
This is the second toughest category, primarily because there have traditionally been so few spots for international athletes. Starting with Canada, Deborah Leung is a superb athlete who has an excellent shot to make her third straight appearance. We also feel that Jamie Senuk would be an excellent addition to the lineup and should receive consideration. We also like Lucie Bergeron a lot but haven't seen her on stage since 2006.
Beyond the Canadian contingent, of course we advocate opening up more spots for our international friends since the IFBB is, after all, an international organization. It would be great if this could add to the event rather than take something away from others, and would be even better if it led to a more muscular lineup. The committee could never go wrong by re-inviting Inga Neverauskaite, she has made the most of her appearances always coming in spot on with an impressive shape. The insider winds blowing in from the "Wild Mouth of the West" are indicating that Brazilian Juliana Malacarne may also get a nod, and a South American invitation would also be a very welcome event. The knock on Juliana has always been her balance, not because she is lacking anywhere but because her legs are so amazing. She has done reasonably well at the pro level and is a champion in her home country, and deserves an invitation if she receives it.
------------------Inga Neverauskaite----------------------------------Juliana Malacarne
In a year when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have legitimate shots at the presidency of the USA, it would be awesome to see another breakthrough - an Australian competing in the Figure International. We now have two legitimate mega-stars from Australia competing regularly in the USA pro circuit, and both look incredible. Of the two, we know that Arina Manta has expressed interest and would be a great addition. Finally, we understand that Zivile Raudoniene will get a lot of consideration and may get an invitation. At FigureRX we'd like to see the international invitees add more muscle to the stage, not less.
----------------------Arina Manta-----------------------------------------Zivile Raudoniene
The Comebackers: Returning to the Stage ....
According to our analysis, one of the toughest things to do is to compete at the Arnold, skip a year, and then try to come back. With so many deserving competitors who have earned the right to the stage, even for the first time, this might be one of the more difficult years ever to make it in this category. And the reason for the layoff doesn't matter either (even if it is pregnancy like Christine Pomponio-Pate). It seems to be just about the passage of time, and the continual improvement in physiques that we see each and every year that makes the entire process more competitive each year.
The leading candidates in this category include Michelle Flake and Shannon Meteraud but we don't think that either will make the cut. We'd also love to see Danielle Hollenshade back up there but she has not put in for an application.
The Defenders: Former Champions Square Off ....
Editor's Note: Both Jenny Lynn and Mary Lado will not be competing - see http://www.ArnoldSelections.com for updates.
For the first time in the history of the Figure International we are hoping to have two defending champions squaring off on the same stage. Jenny Lynn took the title from 2003 to 2005 while Mary Elizabeth Lado has won the title for the past two years. We're not here to predict or comment on winners yet, so we'll leave it at that (but if you want to make a guess regarding our choice for champion take a look at who is in the photo below with Mary
).
----------------------Jenny Lynn-----------------------------------------Mary Elizabeth Lado
The Epilogue
So those are our selections for the Figure International!! Now we sit back and wait and see what the esteemed committee will unveil soon, probably in mid December. By December 14th we should know which competitors have expressed an interested in being invited. Wouldn't it be great to have a half hour Arnold selection show on ESPN2? It would be dominated by the mass monsters on the men's side, but it would still be worth it. Keep an eye at http://www.ArnoldSelections.com to see the results as soon as they are available, and good luck to all!!
Oh .... and head on over to Fitness Talk to see a similar analysis for the Fitness International .... coming soon. And yes Rick, we're going to finish it this time.
When will it be up? Good information and perspective....however would be interesting to see this in detail for fitness...
