FigureRX Feature Part Two: Selections for IFBB Arnold Fitness International
Editor's Note: Check
here or go to
http://www.ArnoldSelections.com to see the invitation list as soon as it has been released, as well as any updates on athletes who have or have not applied.
Welcome to our article on the selection process for the Fitness International, which is a little bit different from our Figure article for a few simple reasons. First, we found that the entire process is by definition a lot more predictable and somewhat less subjective, because in order to step onto the stage at the Arnold you must have a well-rounded package that includes physique qualities and high level routines. That dramatically limits the field of qualified athletes. Second, you continue to see the fitness ranks dominated by a few faces year after year, making it almost easier to predict who will *not* be there (i.e. who will drop out) than it is to decide who will be selected. On an overall basis, the selection process for fitness is run in the same way as the selection process for figure. Please go to the figure article (
LINK) to see a description of that process.
Our computer analyis is completed, but to see real life updates on our predictions up until the final list is released, including a list of athletes who did not apply before the deadline on the 14th ("
Not Competing") please see
http://www.ArnoldSelections.com. At
FigureRX one of our mission statements is to get the names of athletes out there who typically do not receive as much coverage both inside or outside the sport, so you will generally see us focus more than others on newer or rising stars, or comeback athletes, since that's a big part of what we are about as an organization. That's not meant to be a slight at all to any of the big mega-stars, of course -- they get plenty of coverage out there already!!
Analyzing the Results to Predict the Future
For our analysis, we have to begin by giving thanks to resource guides such as Ironman / Graphic Muscle and Muscular Development, because the fitness side of this contest has been around so long it was difficult to find out the difference between an athlete making an Arnold debut versus making a pro debut. For our purposes we have assumed that if an athlete went pro in one year and then immediately competed in the Arnold the following February/March then that was a pro debut (examples include
Tanji Johnson in 2002 and
Nicole Rollolazo in 2003). One of the big resources on the bodybuilding and figure side is Muscle Memory, but for some reason they ignore fitness competitions entirely and state that it is because the athletes wear high heels. Yet they continue to have results for figure
. So between maiden names, name changes, international pro cards, forgotten athletes, fitness to figure crossovers, and everything else we have scrubbed the data and put together the best possible statistical results under the circumstances!!
At last year's Arnold there were a total of ten athletes who had competed in 2006 and were re-invited, the highest ever, which goes to show you that as stars become entrenched it becomes harder each year to crack the fitness side of the show. Only one competitor,
Debbie Czempinski from Australia, returned to the show after an absence. There were four Arnold debuts, with established IFBB Professionals
Bethany Gainey and
Amy Haddad getting a nod.
The numbers on stage have been expanding again, albeit slowly. The 2001 Arnold had a huge number of competitors, and that was of course the year before figure was established ..... kudos to those in the audience who survived the sheer number of routines performed that year!! It's also interesting to see how the show began as a very international event, but the number of athletes from outside the United States dwindled significantly in the 1990s and today it is fairly standard to see only one or two athletes from Canada and other countries.
The Defending Champions: And Then There Were Two ......
Everyone is familiar with the "big three" of the IFBB pro fitness stage, and each year we try and predict that the group should be expanded but these three astounding athletes keep circling the wagons and ending up at the top.
Adela Garcia,
Kim Klein and
Jen Hendershott have finished in the top three and each has won a title over the past three years. In 2008 we know that Adela will be missing her first Arnold since 1999 (she has not finished lower than 4th place since 2000) and she will definitely be missed. So we will have a little bit of a pause in the epic battle between the big three.
------------------------------Defending Fitness International Champion Kim Klein
So now there will be two modern era defending championships, and of course both will receive 2008 invitations. We'll comment on our pick for the win in our event preview, but both of these competitors are expected to come in at their best as usual.
Kim Klein is a
FigureRX favorite, her physique is so incredible (crazy gorgeous legs with miniscule joints) we think she could step onto the figure stage as well without skipping a beat. We even liked the attitude that Kim exhibited after falling just short at the Olympia - champions don't like to lose and she is a champion, better to be angry and show fire like a Dan Marino than to be nonchalant like a Drew Bledsoe. We've forgiven her for telling the Governator that she had to strip muscle to get the win last year (the message we like to send to the young'uns is that figure and fitness girls are athletes who go hard and heavy
). Kim is a star and we love her routines, it's a pleasure to see what she comes up with each year, and she will be at the Arnold to defend her title.
---------------------------2005 Fitness International Champion Jen Hendershott
Must Haves: The Perennial Contenders Plus One......
In the next tier there are a select group of athletes who have become icons and perennial competitors at both the Olympia and the Arnold. In this group one of our favorites is
Tracey Greenwood, as a college professor she is a manifestation of our
Team FigureRX excellence that calls for competitors to be superheroes both on and off the stage. It's great to see her as a representative doing so well in the sport - it benefits all of us. Tracey has competed in every Arnold since 2003 and she finished as high as 4th place in 2006.
--------------------------------------------------Tracey Greenwood
Additional competitors we would place in the "Must Have" category (if they seek an invite) are
Julie Childs and
Julie Palmer .... these athletes have earned the right to compete for as long as they would like, i.e. to go out on their own terms. Julie Palmer actually competed in 2001 when the stage was expanded, and then fought her way back to Columbus in 2004 and placed 4th. Julie Childs also had a great debut in 2006, when she finished 5th.
----------------------Julie Childs----------------------------------------------Julie Palmer
New American Gladiator
Tanji Johnson is an independent icon of the sport who has also earned her way over a long period of time. She made her Arnold debut in 2002, placing 7th, and then returned to Columbus in 2004 and over a four year period she fought her way into the top. Just like with
Valerie Waugaman on the figure side, Tanji's recent successes provide a superb opportunity for national cross-promotion for the IFBB. Finally we are adding an additional competitor to this category simply because she has elevated her game tremendously over the past few months.
Heidi Fletcher is an athlete who we feel is ready to move into the big time based on the incredible physique she presented at the Olympia and in Palm Beach, and she was invited to the Arnold in 2006 and 2007. The computer model likes her as well, once you factor in her pro show performances as well as her overall win at Nationals in 2005. Heidi, welcome to the elite group of competitors who must be on this stage (if healthy) and who have a chance to break into the top three.
--------------------Tanji Johnson-------------------------------------------Heidi Fletcher
The Earned Debuts: It's a Long Way to the Top ......
There is one additional athlete who will likely be making her Arnold pro debut who already belongs in the upper echelons of the event.
Julie Lohre has put together a string of impressive performances over the past few months including top four placings in Atlantic City, Dallas, Palm Beach and Arkansas and an 8th place finish at her first Olympia. The consistency (and frequency) of her placings as well as her physique and routine round scores have her off the charts as far as the computer predicting her selection to this year's Arnold. Based on our model we think that she just missed the cut last year (it depended on how we looked at pro figure placings) and we are excited as always to see her on stage.
-----------------------------------------------------Julie Lohre
The Comebackers: Familiarity Gets You Everywhere ......
Even though it is still difficult to return to the Fitness International stage it is still much easier than for the Figure International. Eight people have done it since 2002, for reasons such as injury or a return from retirement. In this category, we think that
Stacy Simons has an excellent chance to make the move and we would have added her to the 2007 Arnold as well based on her 2006 placings (we have no idea if she applied last year). Stacy adds a lot to the entertainment value of the show, her routines are unique. There really aren't any other candidates in this category unless there are some surprises from the more distant past!
--------------------Stacy Simons
The Newcomers: Sticking to the Formula ......
Traditionally, the competitors who are chosen to make their IFBB professional debuts have won an overall title while going pro at the amateur level. Last year
Amy Nelson was selected after winning Nationals and
Hollie Stewart made the cut after scoring the overall title at the 2006 Team Universe. Recent athletes doing the same include
Heidi Fletcher and
Allison Daughtry in 2006, and
Angela Semsch back when the USA's still had fitness. That means for this year we would predict that
Nicole Wilkins (2007 Team Universe overall) and
Tina Durkin (2007 Nationals overall) will be invited, the former only if she chooses to compete in fitness.
-------------------Nicole Wilkins---------------------------------------------Tina Durkin
Now we are embarking on a little bit of advocacy, since one of the criteria for the Arnold selection is to encourage newer athletes who bring a lot to the sport. The reason why we say advocacy, and not prediction, is that we can't find any recent instances of athletes turning pro by finishing second in their height class and then getting an invitation to the Arnold the following year. Both
Michelle Mayberry and
Erin Riley took second at the 2007 NPC Team Universe, one of the most competitive and talent-filled shows for amateur fitness in the past three years. Michelle finished behind
Nicole Wilkins, while Erin edged out
Tina Durkin. Michelle put on a solid showing during the routine round in Palm Beach but she really stands out for her physique, while Erin is one of the top all around athletes to hit the pro ranks in a while and she has an electrifying, crowd-pleasing routine.
------------------Michelle Mayberry-----------------------------------------Erin Riley
International Stars: Thankful for the Talent ......
As we indicated previously, the number of international competitors at the Arnold has dwindled significantly since the inaugural event. Unfortunately this is probably a reflection of quality and competitor interest, especially when you look at the dearth of athletes competing in fitness at Worlds in Spain this year. So whenever we see qualified international fitness competitors we have no doubt that they will receive every consideration by the panel and rightfully so.
As far as we are concerned
Mindi O'Brien is a Canadian icon who belongs on this stage for as many years as she wants to compete. Her physique (especially her biceps) are otherworldly and we like her level of muscularity as well as her routines. But we also think that this is the year when it might be time to add an additional Canadian athlete to the stage, and when we entered the data on everyone our computer model selected
Stephanie Worsfold. We would have to agree with the computer because we absolutely loved Stephanie's entertaining routine in Palm Beach and we also think her physique belongs on the stage. Because IFBB pro show placings and frequency of competing in the USA are both important statistical factors, and more recent placings tend to count more heavily, Stephanie narrowly edged out two other
FigureRX favorites
Myriam Capes and
Sandra Wickham. We would be thrilled to see any or all of these Canadian athletes on stage in 2008.
-------------------Mindi O'Brien------------------------------------------Stephanie Worsfold
At
FigureRX we think that Russian athlete
Oksana Grishina is close to a sure thing for selection to the Arnold, based on her placings including her 7th place finish at the Olympia. She has a gorgeous physique and we've been told to expect her to add more athleticism to her entertaining, creative routines.
--------------------------------------------------Oksana Grishina
Holding On: You Either Stay or You Don't ......
Once you have made it to the Arnold you either have a great chance to stay there for many, many years or you seem to fall off the map for a while. Of the remaining athletes who were invited in 2007, we think that
Bethany Gainey deserves an invitation based on the solid year that she has had including 2nd place at a pro fitness show and an acclaimed Olympia showing.
Hollie Stewart is another competitor from 2007 who has an excellent chance to return.
We'd have to place
Amy Nelson and
Amy Haddad on the fence - we would not be surprised either way.
Amy Nelson won the overall title at 2006 nationals and did an excellent job at the Europa, placing 7th this year. The statistical model has her narrowly missing the cut because she has not competed in as many pro shows and is not yet established as an Arnold regular.
Amy Haddad barely makes it based on her excellent showings at the Atlantic City Pro and the Europa but was slightly hurt by finishing three places lower than Amy Nelson at last year's Arnold.
Angela Monteleone is an outstanding competitor who would probably benefit from taking a year off before returning to her rightful place on this stage. After rocking the New York Pro earlier in the year, she seemed somewhat uncomfortable while competing at Palm Beach and at the Olympia. We would recommend to Angela that she ignore any sponsorship or management competition requirements to rest her body and compete when she feels that she will be at her best. If her situation has changed in the past few months and she will be ready, then she too belongs in Columbus.
-------------------Angela Semsch------------------------------------------Bethany Gainey
Can't wait to see who makes it. Thanks for the lowdown! 
